The battle for 10 Haryana seats is turning out to be a neck-and-neck contest between the Congress and the BJP-Haryana Janhit Congress alliance, with the latter having a slight edge. In the process, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is looking like a no-show in the state.
AFP
According to a pre-poll survey conducted by Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Election Tracker, the BJP-HJC alliance vote share grew by nine percent from 27 percent to 36 percent between January and March while that of the Congress party dropped from 34 percent to 30 in the intervening period. Significantly, the AAP, which governed neighbouring Delhi for 49 days, saw its popularity drop from 17 percent to just seven percent in the same period.
But while the BJP-HJC alliance has managed significant gains in the state, what could cause it worry is the steady showing of Haryana’s main opposition party – the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). A three-way BJP-Janhit-INLD alliance that some party leaders were toying with would have swept the polls, as the INLD’s vote share has been steady around 15-16 percent.
Akali Dal leader Parkash Singh Badal, considered close to the BJP and the INLD, failed in his efforts to forge an alliance between the three parties. The INLD declined to enter into a pre-poll alliance and has decided to field candidates in all 10 seats, a move which could eat into the BJP-HJC’s vote share in the state.
At a rally in Sonepat last week, BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi hit out at the INLD warning it not to ‘piggyback’ on him while seeking votes and termed INLD as a ‘vote-cutting party’.
INLD Chief Ashok Arora, however, said his party was not closed to any post-poll alliance and a decision would be taken once the results are out. “Modi’s remarks won’t hurt our party’s prospects,” he told The Times of India.
Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP and HJC have fielded eight and two candidates respectively. What is interesting, however, is that four out of the eight candidates fielded by the BJP are Congress rebels who have switched sides ahead of the national polls, prominent among whom are former Congress leaders Inderjit Singh Rao and Dharamveer. In the HJC, one of the two candidates is also a former Congress leader who quit the party this March.
Only three original BJP members – Om Prakash Dhankar from Rohtak, Rattanlal Kataria from Ambala and Faridabad MLA Krishanpal Gurjar – have got party tickets.
However, the reason why the BJP has been choosing to field Congress rebels, despite severe opposition from within the party, is its belief that non-Jat voters will vote anti-Congress this time.
Over half of the non-Jat upper caste voters (58 percent) are likely to vote for the BJP-HJC while a mere 28 percent of those surveyed indicated that they will vote in favour of the Congress, the survey indicates. The INLD, however, seems to have significant control over the Jat vote in the state with the survey indicating that it will get 44 percent of the vote share while the Congress and BJP-HJC alliance will manage just 27 and 23 percent respectively.
In terms of the OBC vote, the BJP-HJC has a slight edge over the Congress with 34 percent and 32 percent respectively. The Dalit vote, however, seems to be significantly in support of the Congress (34 percent) while the BJP-HJC alliance will win 20 percent of the votes.
The pre-poll survey also shows that the UPA government’s decision to grant reservations under the OBC quota to Jats was welcomed by that community. Seventy five percent of Jat voters supported the government’s decision, while 11 percent of those surveyed from the community disagreed with it.
Non-Jat voters, however, appear divided over the government’s decision with 45 percent of those surveyed saying they were not in favour of the reservation, while 41 percent could not yet decide.
In rural Haryana, it is a close fight between the Congress and the BJP-HJC alliance while in urban areas the BJP-HJC alliance is way ahead. The INLD is likely to get 17 percent of the rural vote share and about 15 percent of the urban ones. The Aam Aadmi Party, is likely to win 7 percent of the votes in rural and urban parts of the state.
Narendra Modi has improved his perception among Haryanvi voters, and he is the clear choice of 38 percent of voters for PM, up from 32 percent in January. Congress’s Rahul Gandhi, who is currently leading his party’s election campaign, fell from 19 percent to 12 percent in the same period.
AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal also saw a drop from 10 percent in January to a mere four percent in March. When asked what they felt about Kejriwal, those surveyed were undecided, with 48 percent of them unwilling to express their opinion. Twenty five percent felt Kejriwal’s style of politics was political drama before the polls, while 20 percent felt he was genuinely concerned about the common man.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress party won nine out of the 10 seats, while the HJC managed to win just one seat. The state will go to polls on 10 April and counting of votes is on 16 May.
BJP alliance ahead of Cong in Haryana, AAP set to bite the dust
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