Election Tracker: Cong ahead of BJP in Karnataka, JD(S) on the slide

The Congress is well ahead of the BJP in Karnataka, with the re-entry of BS Yeddyurappa to the party seen as a mixed blessing for the latter. The good performance till date by Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has only compounded troubles for the BJP.

BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa. PTI

A Lokniti, CSDS-IBN NES pre-poll survey that was held between 19 and 24 March in 14 parliamentary seats with a sample size 825 actually found support for the Congress rising from 42 percent in February to 46 percent in March. This trend is in contrast to the so-called Narendra Modi wave that is believed to be blowing in a significant part of the country. In Karnataka, the BJP received 32 percent support in February and 36 percent in March.

The 4 percent rise for both Congress and BJP suggests that Karnataka will be a two-horse race, with third players being gradually squeezed out. The Janada Dal (S) of Deve Gowda is losing steam, with its support dwindling to 12 percent from the earlier 18 percent, and the Aam Aadmi Party set to sink to insignificance (down from three percent to 1 percent between February and march)

Where the BJP faltered in Karnataka needs no research. Although the party re-inducted Yeddyurappa in the hope of reviving the party’s fortunes, the party is still divided on him. Among traditional BJP supporters surveyed, 50 percent were in favour while 45 percent were against it. However, Yeddyurappa could well be bringing in the Lingayat vote – with 59 percent of Lingayats banking the BJP to 28 for Congress. The BJP is also up with the Vokkaligas, the traditional support base for the JD(S), with 37 percent against the latter’s 32 percent.

However, overall, it is Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA strategy – which brings backward classes, minorities and dalits on one platform – that is paying off, with the BJP getting most of its support from the upper and dominant castes.

Within a short span of time, Siddaramaiah, who led the party to a resounding win last year, has made inroads into BJP bastions on account of his smart work. He exploited the vacuum created by the infighting plaguing the BJP. The Siddaramaiah stamp is evident as the net satisfaction levels with both state and Central governments’ performance increased considerably by 57 percent and 33 percent respectively. The survey revealed that 39 percent were more concerned with the performance of the state government.

This effort from the chief minister has actually managed to weaken the anti-incumbency against the UPA from 49 percent in the last poll to 43 percent in the present. Among the respondents, 38 percent were in favour of a third stint for the UPA, which is 5 percent more than the January figure.

Like in many other states, development is the topmost criteria for 19 percent of the voters, followed by 10 percent for price rise and corruption 7 percent.

What is noteworthy from the survey is that BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is still ahead of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. Despite the stellar show by Siddaramaiah in Karnataka, Modi has the support of 32 percent of the respondents against Gandhi’s 27 percent in the much-coveted race of this election.

Election Tracker: Cong ahead of BJP in Karnataka, JD(S) on the slide