Election Tracker: Congress retains Assam, keeps BJP, AIUDF at bay

Despite the much-discussed Narendra Modi wave, the north-eastern state of Assam seems to be steadfastly clinging to its traditional Congress allegiance. Unlike the trends elsewhere, the Congress is way ahead of others, including the BJP, when the choice of voters of the state is accounted for.

The Lokniti, CSDS-IBN-National Election Tracker pre-poll survey indicates that although preference for the Congress has diminished a bit at 44 percent compared to the January figure at 47 percent, the party is still way ahead of its closest rival BJP which got just 19 percent. The near demolition of the regional outfit Asom Gana Parishad under former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta and the weak organisational structure of the BJP, which is bereft of any big names and local leadership, have left the field open for the Congress to thrive. The position of the BJP and AGP is so poor that even if the two had combined, they could not have dented the Congress much.

Going on a high in Assam. PTI

The depth in the Congress outreach, particularly in the rural areas of the state, has turned out to be the critical factor in cementing it supremacy. The survey polled 798 voters in March and 462 in January. While 44 percent vouched for the Congress in rural Assam against BJP’s 16 percent, in urban Assam the BJP, with 37 percent support, is a lot closer to the ruling party’s 47 percent.

Geographically speaking the Congress continues to garner massive support from the tea garden belt in upper Assam. This mostly consists of the districts of Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, Sivasagar and Golaghat. Most of the contestants in upper Assam, like the Congress’ sitting MP and Union Minister Paban Singh Ghatowar, AGP’s Kamakhya Prasad Tasha and BJP’s Rameswar Teli are also from the tea community.

The failure of Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF to impact Muslim voters of the state has turned out to be the biggest boon for the Congress. The national party has always heavily relied upon Muslim voters to stay in power. Of late, the Congress has tended to cash in on the anti-illegal migrants stand of the indigenous people as it is strategically distancing itself from the AIUDF.

The AIUDF is generally believed to have a soft corner for those with doubtful citizenship credentials. The foreigners’ issue is one of the most pertinent in the state as 43 percent of the respondents thought this was a problem. There is little doubt that the population in Assam is burgeoning at a quick pace, threatening the existing equation in matters of economy and demography.

The minority community has played a key role in overturning the ambitions of BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi as 52 percent of the community favours Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. Modi only got a paltry 5 percent from the community. When the choice is between Modi and Gandhi, the Congress leader led at 32 percent against the Gujarat chief minister’s 21 percent. However, in the overall survey involving other leaders like Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, Modi is just ahead of Rahul. While Modi got 15 percent, Rahul is just behind him at 14 percent.

Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi may pat his own back as 22 percent of the surveyed citizens expressed happiness with the work of the state government. In this background, it is not very surprising to find that 40 percent of the voters want the UPA to retain power. It must be mentioned here that the figure was 59 percent when the poll was last conducted in January this year. For an underdeveloped state like Assam, it is quite natural that 23 percent of the respondents considered it to be a key issue.

In the last few months, the BJP poached many disgruntled AGP leaders but this, as this survey tells us, will not change the fortunes for the national party, at least in the near future.

Election Tracker: Congress retains Assam, keeps BJP, AIUDF at bay